19 August 2013
According to most prominent researchers, the “Arab
spring” events greatly fit in the reconstruction plan of so called Big Middle
East (BME). However, their main argument looks rather primitive: the events that
have led to the “Arab spring” were so widespread that it is almost certain that
some foreign forces have been heavily involved.
The concept
of BME was first introduced by the US president George W. Bush in 2003 when he
referred to the necessity of democratic reforms on the territory of South Africa
and South-Western Asia with the use of western finances. The main target was, of
course, to reshape the geopolitics of BME in order to prevent the evolution of
independent actors and to provide the US with reliable control of power
resources and logistics.
Long before the “slate revolution” the American
agents have been proposing the White House to re-orient power sources of Latin
America and Western Africa since the supplies from these regions have
traditionally been cheaper and more reliable. The agents were confident that the
strategic value of the Persian Gulf oil would only grow in the near future, and
the US should engage with other actors in the struggle for that oil, no matter
whether Washington would need it or not.
It is widely perceived that the
first victim of BME was Saddam Hussein. However, it should be mentioned that, as
a late American political scientist mentioned, American arrogance and militarism
that have led to the invasion of Iraq in 2003 resulted in a profound change of
international attitudes toward the US, which turned from post-9/11 compassion to
irritation with American foreign policy.
By comparison, Iran was a
completely another matter. Both, during the regime of George W. Bush and Barack
Obama’s first term, Iranian nuclear problem was considered as the key element of
BME concept.
Nowadays, the situation has slightly changed. Due to the
“Arab spring”, war in Syria, and Egypt “restoration” Washington became doubtful
regarding the forceful actions against Iran. Israel, which has a stronger
posture towards Iran, even has to ‘annoy’ the US with its warlike statements.
However, if one accepts American logic, the promise of Tehran to close the
Strait of Hormuz, which is used to transport up to 40% of world oil, can come
across the plan of BME realization. One of the most important points of the plan
is to provide energy security.
However, all of this is only one side of
the matter, conspiracy theorists suggest. They remind us that the concept of BME
and the “Arab spring” are united by ‘the guided chaos’ theory.
The
official logic of that theory is the following. With its political structure
irreconcilable with chaos, democracy seems to be ideal for maintaining peace in
international relations. Since the US is the most prominent democratic country
in the world, it is supposed to decrease the level of instability and to help
authoritarian regimes turn into democratic one by guiding the chaos within them.
The guidance includes actions targeted at weakening of one or another country by
economic and/or political modification through any peaceful means.
The
theory of guided chaos itself is a very mystical and attractive one but also
very obscure. There are various interpretations on this matter. Some believe
that “guided chaos” allows to create such conditions in the “victim country”
that could potentially justify “humanitarian intervention” on behalf of a
democracy. Others state that this theory helps to avoid military intervention in
order to gain control over natural resources.
Nevertheless, theory
supporters suggest that the doctrine is well-suited for real life situations.
With the help of modern technologies, the actions toward creating “guided chaos”
should have spontaneous nature. In order to strife against the current authority
all possible opposing entities should be attracted, no matter what their
ideological beliefs are. This way, it is possible to create an “oppositional
crowd” without any distinct leader. The roles of government and other political
structures are also vital.
Officially, Arab revolution never happened
which allows the followers of the “guided chaos” theory to state that the
leaders of countries that were trying to gain dominance in the region actually
gave an opportunity to the US to divide the Arab world for better
controllability. China is one of the good examples of how the Arab Spring has
caused the economic losses of more than 10 billion dollars due. Russia also lost
billions in arms sales. This way, the Arab Spring was a multi-purpose
operation.
However, there is one defect that prevails in all the
aforementioned examples. While the US would have liked attribute the idea of the
“Arab spring” to themselves as part of their BME plan, the “spring” took them by
surprise and made them react quickly and make mistakes unable to control the
situation. After the deposition of Egyptian leader and US long-term ally Hosni
Mubarak, it became important for Washington to make sure that it was “on the
right page”, which back then was associated with the “Muslims Brotherhood”. In
the end, US found itself in a very awkward position when Egyptian military
presented a checkmate to them in three moves.
The “Arab spring” destroyed
not only the power structure of some countries, but also greatly affected the
regional power structure. It could have been to the advantage of certain
countries, for instance to the Saudi Arabia which didn’t want either the
strengthening of Shiah Iran or the regional Sunni leaders. In any case, the
situation in the Middle East is full of chaos nowadays with no resemblance of
any kind of order.
No comments:
Post a Comment